Lula maintains electoral lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil

Brasilia, Aug 10 (Prensa Latina) Brazilian leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential race, according to a poll released by Nexus/BTG Pactual. The survey indicates that the incumbent—the Workers' Party candidate—reaches 40 percent of voting intentions in a prompted first-round scenario, five points ahead of the Liberal Party (PL) candidate.

August 11, 2026
09:51

As part of the ninth round of the Nexus/BTG Pactual study, the poll was conducted via telephone interviews from August 7 to 9 with 2,001 voters across the South American giant’s 27 federal units.

It has a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95 percent; it is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-08428/2026.

In a potential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the president secures 47 percent compared to the senator’s 44 percent.

The three-point difference falls within the margin of error, resulting in a statistical tie between the two, according to media outlets such as the *Brasil 247* portal.

Lula also numerically outperforms other opponents included in the runoff simulations; the second round is scheduled for October 25, three weeks after the first round.

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