During a discussion at the Panamanian Association of Business Executives (Apede), the official explained that reduced water inflow could force operational restrictions and cut both vessel traffic and cargo volume.

The Canal projects approximately 10,750 deep-draft transits for the 2027 fiscal year—an 11% decrease compared to 2025—as well as a reduction of 32 million tons of cargo, equivalent to seven percent.

Currently, about 32 vessels transit daily, compared to the 38 to 40 allowed under normal conditions. Between 55 and 60% of the Canal’s profits come from Neopanamax vessels, which require higher water levels to maintain their advertised draft.

Sedda noted that between May and August, rainfall was 34% below average, and inflows into the Canal’s watershed were 44% lower than normal.

The executive warned that the risk is not merely financial but also affects the route’s reliability, as prolonged restrictions could lead shipping companies to use longer, more expensive alternative routes.

He recalled that during the 2024 drought, the Canal lost 2,700 transits and 88 million tons of cargo, although higher revenue from tolls and auctions helped offset the impact.

However, Sedda argued that such a result would not be sustainable in the event of another period of restrictions, as shipping companies might anticipate the situation and alter their routes.

The challenge, he emphasized, transcends the financial realm and is linked to the need to ensure the reliability and continuity of Panama’s main maritime route in the face of reduced water availability.

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