FAO´s latest forecast for global cereal production in 2021 has been lifted by 2.1 million tons in February and now stands at 2,793 million tons, equivalent to a 0.8% higher year-on-year.
The bulk of this month´s change relates to larger-than-previously estimated wheat outputs in Argentina and Australia, along with slightly higher production estimates in Russia and Ukraine.
Notwithstanding this month’s cut, the global coarse grains 2021 forecast still stands 1.3% higher year-on-year at 1 501 million tons. FAO’s global rice production forecast for 2021 is now pegged at 517.1 million tons, up 0.7% from the 2020 record, but 1.3 million tons lower than anticipated in December.
In southern hemisphere countries, the bulk of the 2022 coarse grain crop was planted in late 2021, with the 2022 wheat crop to be sown later in the year. Record maize acreages are forecast in Argentina and Brazil, supported by high grain prices. While dry conditions are forecast in Argentina’s key producing central-eastern area, curbing yield prospects, the weather outlook in Brazil is more favorable, and maize yields are predicted to be near average in 2022. At 2 805 million tons, world cereal utilization in 2021/22 is forecast to increase by 1.6% from its 2020/21 level, despite a downward revision of 4.5 million tons, nearly exclusively on feed use, since December.
World cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2022 have been lifted since December by 2.2 million tons to 824 million tons, only slightly lower than their opening levels. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2021/22 is projected at 28.7 percent, representing a decline from the 2020/21 level of 29.4%, but still a comfortable level historically.
FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals in 2021/22 stands at a record 481 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from December and an increase of 0.4% from the 2020/21 level.