The elections are taking place in Aguascalientes, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Durango and Hidalgo, so far dominated by the opposition, but the predictions are that at least four of them will lose, although the others grant an absolute victory to the ruling MORENA (National Regeneration Movement) party, founded by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
The latter is the only party that has nothing to lose and everything to gain, as the remaining states have a very big drop in the correlation of forces in the nation if the states’ control drops less than a dozen of 32 in total, which would reduce the possibilities for the 2024 presidential elections.
Analysts and pollsters give so much importance to today’s elections, at which a few more than 11 million Mexicans will vote.
A quick look at each state in elections, according to pollsters, indicates that the only state where MORENA might lose is Aguascalientes, one of the strongholds of the conservative National Action Party. They add that the situation in Durango is also tight but more difficult to predict.
If those predictions are confirmed, it is most likely that there will be internal movements in the Institutional Revolutionary Party, the National Action Party and the Democratic Revolutionary Party, which are going through an acute leadership crisis and, as they are, they would be a great disadvantage in the presidential elections if they do not change their leadership first, according to analysts of several trends.