In the opinion of the group, the global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year; however, the short-term trajectory is now subject to greater uncertainty.

Consequently, global gross domestic product (GDP) is also expected to grow at a slower pace, which could be around 3 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026.

Tensions associated with Washington’s policy have changed the outlook and generated “new uncertainties” amid a growing escalation of tariffs between the United States and China, the organization stated. “Short-term inflationary pressures are likely to resume, while a slowdown in economic growth is expected,” notes the analysis published Monday.

According to OPEC estimates, fuel demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a reduction of 150,000 bpd compared to last month’s estimates.

According to experts, not only will the energy market loose momentum due to the aforementioned conflict; for example, the International Trade Center (ITC) warned that overall transactions could contract by three percent as a result of US tax measures, which in the long term will shape and boost untapped regional ties.

While the 90-day pause on so-called reciprocal tariffs covers imports from most countries and reduces rates to a still-sizable 10 percent, duties on imports from China currently stand at 145 percent, the United Nations ITC noted.

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