Danilo Gortaire, PhD in physics and mathematics, reached this conclusion after analyzing the official results announced Thursday by the National Electoral Council (CNE), which declared President Daniel Noboa the winner by a wide margin over the RC candidate, Luisa González.
Based on a technical tie scenario similar to the first-round performance, Gortaire concluded that the possibility of a difference of more than one million votes between the two contenders is practically zero, noting that between the first and second rounds, Noboa won more than 1.2 million votes, and González obtained just over 59,000, a ratio that, according to the mathematical models used, does not stand up any reasonable statistical parameters.
The report concludes that the official narrative is not statistically consistent and calls on oversight bodies, observation missions, and civil society to demand a full audit of the electoral process.
Francisco Estarellas, joint prosecutor for the RC-Renovación Total (RC-RETO) alliance, which sponsored González’s presidential candidacy, underscored inconsistencies in more than 13,000 tally sheets from the recent electoral process and announced that they will appeal to all relevant bodies.
In statements to the press, Estarellas reiterated that the existence of irregularities represents a significant challenge to the transparency of the process. He noted that the tally sheets “do not match those in the system,” arguing that “the system can manipulate the scanned tally sheets.” “What should be done, for the good of the country and future elections, is to conduct an audit of the entire CNE system,” Estarellas emphasized.
Former President Rafael Correa, founder and leader of the RC, referred in an interview to the alleged electoral fraud due to the anomalies recorded and stated that the solution is to “open the ballot boxes” and examine the votes “for the good of all.” “It’s a cocktail of irregularities; some are fraudulent, but 200,000 or 300,000 votes could be recovered, but recovering a difference of 1.2 million votes is mathematically impossible,” he said.
jrr/llp/rc/avr
