Although the event develops in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, its consequences usually extend to much of South America, including Uruguay, where it could have an impact in the coming months.

The source stated that the oceanic and atmospheric conditions observed in recent weeks allow the 2026-2027 episode to be considered underway, even though international organizations such as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have not yet officially declared it.

According to Metsul, the warming of the Pacific surface waters has speeded up in recent days and reached levels consistent with an El Nino event.

This is compounded by atmospheric changes that specialists consider characteristic of this climatic phase. The consulting firm states that there is a high probability that the phenomenon will reach a strong or very strong intensity during the second half of the year.

It even maintains that it could become a “super El Nino” and rank among the most intense episodes of modern times.

In Uruguay, historically, years influenced by El Niño tend to have above-average rainfall, especially during spring and early summer. The probability of severe storms and episodes of heavy rain also increases.

Experts warn, however, that it is not possible to predict extreme events months in advance; these can only be forecasted in much shorter timeframes.

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