According to the AARI statement, after analyzing a long-term dataset, they concluded that the main driver of the degradation of perennial Arctic ice is the warming of Atlantic waters entering the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait.

  Therefore, the key to understanding this melting lies in the depths of the ocean.  

Understanding this natural mechanism has practical implications: it makes it possible to predict the abnormal melting of perennial ice in the Greenland Sea one to four years in advance.

  Ice formation forecasts for the coming years will help shipping companies and Northern Sea Route operators select routes, schedule voyages, and assess risks with greater precision and lead time.

  The study covered nearly 30 years of observations—from 1996 to 2023—and confirmed that the ocean acts as a powerful heat reservoir, capable of retaining thermal anomalies that affect ice conditions over long periods.

  “In our study, we showed that the state of old ice in the Greenland Sea is largely determined by events in the water column several years before visible changes appear on the surface,” noted Natalia Lis, a researcher in the AARI’s Department of Oceanology.

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