According to the FAO’s latest report on cereal supply and demand, published by the organization’s press office, production will reach 2.982 billion tons, primarily due to reduced wheat harvests.
This projected decrease follows a 6.1% increase in the 2025/26 season, which reached a record 3.043 billion tons, coinciding with the end of the marketing year. This robust growth generated a 9.5 percentage point increase in global cereal stocks.
Global cereal utilization is foreseen to increase by 0.6% in the 2026/2027 season, a slowdown from the 2.7 percentage point growth rate recorded in the previous season.
According to FAO experts, global cereal stocks are expected to contract slightly, by 0.3%, mainly due to lower forecasts for rice inventories, leaving the global cereal stocks-to-utilization ratio at 31.7 percentage points, close to its previous level.
Following growth of 4.8% in 2025/26, global cereal trade is expected to decline by 0.3 percentage points to 507.2 million tons next year, as the expected decrease in traded wheat and barley volumes offset the anticipated increase in maize and rice shipments.
The report details how tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the war launched last February by the United States and Israel against Iran, are transforming the global panorama of bulk cargo transport and analyzes how some countries are responding to rising energy and fertilizer costs.
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