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Analysts assess risk of decoupling between China and the US

Beijing, Apr 22 (Prensa Latina) Economists and business leaders believe that the United States' tariff policies against China pose a risk of decoupling between the two economies, which translates into serious damage to the global trading system.

Chinese economist Lin Yifu explained that American companies depend on the Chinese market and supply chains to maintain their competitiveness. “For example, the imposition of an additional 145 percent tariff increase on Chinese products has led many American companies to protest to the State Department,” he noted at a thematic forum held in Beijing.

The expert emphasized that American consumers are also affected by the price increases resulting from the tariffs. “Americans need good-quality, low-cost Chinese products,” he stated, citing as examples the Chinese e-commerce platforms Shein, Temu, and Dunhuang.com, which have gained popularity by offering products with tax exemptions thanks to their small-package format.

Lin criticized the logic behind the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration, which he described as part of a historical pattern of “blaming others for one’s own problems.” “In the 1980s it was Japan, now it’s China,” he said, adding that this strategy does not solve the United States’ structural problems and harms both its citizens and its companies.

Regarding technology industries, Lin warned that protectionist policies could cause a “double impact”: on the one hand, sectors without comparative advantages will require permanent subsidies to survive, on the other hand, high-tech industries, such as chip manufacturing, face risks of losing markets due to possible trade retaliation.

The economist recalled the case of the tariffs imposed by Washington after the collapse of the New York stock market in 1929, which led to the Great Depression. “We hope the United States will learn from history and avoid repeating these mistakes,” he declared.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently expressed during a meeting in Beijing that restrictions on semiconductor exports to China have significantly impacted the company. “Nvidia has grown alongside the Chinese market,” he said, highlighting China’s importance to the company’s innovation and sustainability.

International analysts such as Jack Gold of J. Gold Associates agree that the restrictions are driving the development of the domestic semiconductor industry. “Once China develops competitive chips, it will be difficult for US companies to regain those markets,” he warned.

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