With that figure, the Workers’ Party candidate holds a five-percentage-point lead over his main rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro—the Liberal Party candidate—the Quaest institute survey noted.

Conducted from September 24 to 27 among 2,004 voters aged 16 and older, the study shows other candidates trailing with lower figures.

Lula gained two percentage points compared to the previous study released on September 21, when he registered 37% support, while Flavio Bolsonaro rose from 33 to 34%.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, a confidence level of 95%, and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court.

In the prompted survey—where candidates’ names are presented to respondents—writer Augusto Cury (Avante) and former Goias Governor Ronaldo Caiado (Social Democratic Party) each garnered four percent.

Renan Santos (Mission Party) polled at three percent, while former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema (New Party) stood at one percent.

The proportion of respondents intending to cast a blank or null vote, or to abstain from voting, rose from seven to 10%, while the number of undecided voters fell from eight to five percent.

In a potential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, both candidates garner 42% of voter preference; in the previous poll, the senator held that same figure while the incumbent stood at 41%.

Given the margin of error, this result represents a statistical tie, according to media outlets such as the Brasil 247 news portal.

In the spontaneous poll—conducted without presenting a list of names—Lula retained 31% of mentions, while Flavio Bolsonaro rose from 26 to 27%.

In addition to the president, the elections—with the first round scheduled for October 4 and a runoff, if necessary, three weeks later—will determine the vice president, governors, 54 of the 81 senators, and federal, state, and district deputies.

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