Trade volume slipped between July-September due to supply chain disruptions, shortages of production inputs and rising Covid-19 cases, the WTO said in a statement on its website.
WTO also reported that trade volume was still 11.9% year to date through September – down slightly from the WTO´s October prediction of a 12.7% rise over the same period.
The forecast of a 10.8% increase in merchandise trade for the whole of 2021 could still be realized if fourth quarter data show a pickup in volume growth.
“This is a real possibility since measures to unblock container ports on the west coast of the United States have met with some success.”
However, the emergence of Omicron variant appears to tip the balance of risks downward, by increasing the chance of more negative outcome.
In contrast to trade volume, the value of global merchandise trade ramped up by 24% in the penultimate quarter as export/import prices skyrocketed, driven by raw materials, including fuels, which doubled with you grow since 2020.